Walters: State’s war on carbon emissions faces setbacks in court and Congress

California s self-designated deadline for achieving net zero emissions of greenhouse gases is years away But what is happening or not happening in multiple arenas now may determine whether that goal is met The largest single source of emissions is the nearly billion miles that Californians drive each day Accordingly the state has ordered that by all new cars sold must be zero-emission vehicles ZEVs However the state has interim goals and so far purchases of electric vehicles are falling well short This year s goal was to be but sales have been running about percentage points behind compelling the Air Tools Board to push the goal of off until Meanwhile the Republican-controlled Congress in response to pleas from automakers has passed and President Donald Trump has signed decree to cancel the state s authority to deviate from national emission standards effectively halting the zero-emission mandate We officially rescue the U S auto industry from destruction by terminating California s electric wagon mandate Trump explained And they re never coming back The state is challenging the new decree in court leaving the issue up in the air However even if the state s waiver from federal standards is reinstated the underlying issue of persuading Californians to buy electric vehicles would remain To meet the revised target California would need to increase ZEV sales by about from current levels rising from approximately in current times to in less than months Rob Lapsley president of the California Business Roundtable notes in a contemporary analysis of the situation Related Articles Police release search warrant in California state senator s DUI review Walters California politicians ignore agriculture s troubles but boost movie business Evans Don t believe the haters I m from Arkansas California is no failure Skelton Big state budget questions linger about crime Medi-Cal Delta tunnel Solar procedures plan jeopardizes housing and capacity affordability Obviously the state cannot directly force motorists to buy electric cars and trucks and can only offer subsidies or make it impossible to purchase anything other than a zero-emission automobile On paper the legal onus is on automakers to meet the year-by-year goals with hefty fines thousands of dollars per bicycle for falling short Another major front in the carbon war is the Air Materials Board s low carbon fuel standard aimed at compelling refineries to lower the amount of carbon in gasoline While the board desired it to take effect earlier this year its regulations hit a snag in the Office of Administrative Law which declared the regulations lacked the clarity needed to make them understood by those affected The air board has rewritten specific passages of the regulations which are hundreds of pages long and has indicated that they may take effect in July The big issue at least to motorists is how they will affect pump prices In the board estimated that adoption could right now increase gas prices by cents a gallon and then on average from through the proposed amendments are projected to potentially increase the price of gasoline by per gallon the price of diesel by per gallon and fossil jet fuel by per gallon The estimate generated a storm of media attention and the board responded by refusing to put firm numbers on foreseen price effects thus creating a guessing event that will end only when the mandate takes effect Meanwhile the U S Supreme Court declared last week that oil companies have the right to challenge the state s emission regulations in court The whole point of the regulations is to increase the number of electric vehicles in the new automobile realm beyond what consumers would otherwise demand Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote in the majority opinion The regime generally may not target a business or industry through stringent and allegedly unlawful regulation and then evade the resulting lawsuits by claiming that the targets of its regulation should be locked out of court The - decision implies that whatever else happens the Supreme Court could have the last word and it might not favor California Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist